March 28, 2024

The Abyei ruling: what it’s about & why it matters

This coming Wednesday, July 22, a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, will render its decision on the dispute between the Government of Sudan (GOS) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) over the boundaries of the Abyei area. The decision – regardless of what it is – is anticipated to be a catalyst for renewed violence in the area. The following is a brief primer on what the issue is, why it matters, and what possible decisions could come out on Wednesday.

Why does this matter?

The Abyei area falls between North and South Sudan. During the negotiations that resulted in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), the SPLM/A and the GOS could not agree on the exact boundaries of the Abyei area. Rather than hold up the conclusion of negotiations they agreed to effectively “punt” the question forward, and established an Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC), which was tasked with defining the Abyei area during the Interim period of the CPA.

During the Interim period, Abyei was to have a “special administrative status”, with representation in both Kordofan (North) and Bahr el Ghazal (South), and oil revenues from the area were to be split six ways as per Article 1.2.3 of the Abyei Protocol (“National Government (50 percent); the Government of Southern Sudan (42 percent); Bahr el Ghazal region (2 percent); Western Kordofan (2 percent); locally with the Ngok Dinka (2 percent); and locally with the Misseriya people (2 percent”).

However, at the same time as the South has its referendum on secession in 2011, residents of the Abyei area will vote on whether they want to retain their special administrative status in the North, or have Abyei be part of Bahr el Ghazal (South). Because their decision on this holds, independent of the result of the Southern referendum, the upshot is that if the South votes to go its own way, the boundary that this current fight is over will be an international border. Bottom line: The stakes are high.

How did it get to this point?

As explained above, the CPA established an Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC) to demarcate “”the Area of the nine Ngok Dinka Chiefdoms transferred to Kordofan in 1905, referred to herein as Abyei Area.” The ABC had an equitable representation from both parties, and included five “impartial experts” nominated by the US, UK and IGAD (Donald Petterson (Chair), Dr. Douglas Johnson, Professor Godfrey Muriuki, Professor Kassahun Berhanu and Professor Shadrack Gutto). On 14 July, 2005, the ABC presented its finding to the Sudanese Presidency who, rather than take “necessary action to put the special administrative status of Abyei Area into immediate effect” as they were required to do, rejected the ABC’s findings, arguing that the Commission had “exceeded its mandate.”

The consequence is that issue is now before an ad hoc tribunal, created by the Parties (GOS and SPLM/A) and seated at the Permanent Court of Arbitration(PCA) in The Hague. Each Party chose two arbitrators, and the PCA selected the fifth to chair the tribunal. After receiving three comprehensive filings from each of the Parties, as well as listening to oral briefings, the tribunal is due to hand down its decision on July 22, 2009.

What can the PCA tribunal decide?

The first question before the tribunal is whether the ABC did, in fact, exceed its mandate as the GOS claims. If the tribunal decides that the answer to this first question is no, then the area demarcated by the ABC as the Abyei area will stand. In plain English, the SPLM/A wins.

If, however, the tribunal agrees with the GOS that the ABC (sorry for all the acronyms!) did exceed its mandate, the Parties have agreed that the tribunal will demarcate the Abyei area, based on submissions the Parties have made. Thus even if the tribunal decides the ABC exceeded its mandate, they could still affirm the demarcation made by the ABC. Alternatively they could demarcate a smaller, or indeed, larger area than the ABC did. But regardless, the decision of the tribunal is absolutely final – there is no option of appeal.

Comments

  1. So what could possibly happen tomorrow? While Crilly’s Second Rule is never to predict anything in Africa, I feel on rather solid ground here. The tribunal will decide that the ABC did indeed overstep its mandate before retiring to consider the boundary itself, thus kicking the issue back into the long grass once again. The SPLA will be pretty disgruntled but that’s much better than the alternatives…

  2. BOL BIEM CHOL says:

    abyei was not the whol sudan when the problem

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